HUMBLE Guidelines for Uncertain Times
By Ginny Wiley
When the going gets tough, the tough think systems. Pegasus's former president Ginny Wiley has been helping people think systemically, in good times and in bad, for more than 25 years. Based on learnings from the recent financial crisis, here are her HUMBLE guidelines for responding with confidence to conditions of dynamic uncertainty. Print them and post them in your workspace as a sustaining daily reference.
H-How Did We Get into This Predicament?
How do we learn from what has happened so that we don't make the same mistakes again? How do we summon the courage to step up to the plate and take personal and organizational responsibility for the consequences of our actions? It's easy to think of us vs. them, Main Street vs. Wall Street, the haves vs. the have nots. As systems thinkers, however, we know that we are all part of the system. We need to move from blame to accountability, to recognize the role many of us played in this debacle by not asking questions earlier. We knew that housing prices couldn't rise forever; we knew that unsecured lending was risky; we knew that if it seemed too good to be true, it probably was!
U-Unintended Consequences
As we move forward, we will challenge decisions by looking for unintended consequences before we act ("Fixes That Fail"). What are the unintended consequences of bailing out (or not bailing out) a financial institution or an auto maker or providing relief for untenable mortgages? What are the unintended consequences to organizations of layoffs, or delays in capital investment, or the elimination of all training? On a personal level, what are the unintended consequences of liquidating assets, cashing in a 401K, or putting off medical care?
M-Mental Models
Let's challenge all of our mental models! Give thought to a specific situation from the vantage point of three or four different stakeholders. When we think we have it tough, can we imagine the impact of this situation on those who had far fewer resources to begin with?
B-Balancing Loops
Remember that reinforcing loops cannot go on forever, be they vicious or virtuous. Think about possible balancing loops that are (or will be) at play as the situation seems to be getting worse. For example, as housing prices fall, there will be some good deals on houses; with stock prices down, investing in a retirement plan will buy you more shares which, eventually (remember time delays), should result in more value. Consider scenarios for the impact of different balancing loops.
L-Long- Versus Short-Term Solutions
Short-term solutions tend to relieve pain or stress, but are frequently needed and applied at the event level. Ultimately we need to address the long-term issues. Think about the "Shifting the Burden" archetype. Short-term solutions are fine (and often necessary), but not at the expense of the long-term solution. Ask the question: What might be the unintended consequence of the short-term "fix" that could seriously undermine actions needed to implement the long-term (fundamental) solution?
E-Easy Answers Usually Lead Back in . . .
Easy/comfortable answers and actions usually only provide symptomatic relief. Remember the Albert Einstein quote: "The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of thinking we were at when we created them." We need to think systemically.
Ginny Wiley is former president of Pegasus Communications. She previously worked at GKA, a systems thinking consulting company, as a consultant and trainer. Ginny served as vice president for Chapters of the International System Dynamics Society and holds an MBA from Northeastern University.